Estimating Pedestrian Flows and Signal Delay from Sydney Traffic-Signal Event Histories

[David M Levinson]

Recently published:

• 
  Levinson, D. M. (2026) Estimating Pedestrian Flows and Signal Delay from Sydney Traffic-Signal Event Histories. Findings, October 20, 2026. [doi]
  

Traffic-signal histories record first pedestrian calls but omit subsequent arrivals. We apply a calibrated first-actuation estimator to Sydney histories for 18 September 2018. Screening retains 5,114 movement-hours at 174 sites, yielding an estimated 331,729 crossings. Estimated delay is 3,671.5 pedestrian-hours assuming full compliance and 2,746.3 hours under a transferred behaviour scenario: 39.8 and 29.8 seconds per crossing. Median site flow is 66.5 crossings per usable hour.

Keywords:

pedestrian flow; pedestrian delay; traffic-signal histories; pedestrian actuation; censored estimation

Data/code: https://github.com/dlevinson/paper-...lay-from-sydney-trafficsignal-event-histories






Figure 2. Estimated pedestrian crossings at site 516. Panel A shows the 24-hour profile for 18 September 2018. Crosses mark hours that are not estimable under the screening rules; the hatched 22:00 bar uses three of the four pedestrian movements. Panel B compares seven consecutive days using identical screened movement and clock-hour coverage; the Tuesday analysis date is highlighted. Panel C shows monthly typical-day estimates from September 2017 through August 2018 using the same movements and clock hours in every month. Orange labels identify months in which one incomplete date is excluded. Monthly values are typical-day estimates, not monthly totals.